Yesterday I posted part one, describing how we can measure the effectiveness of the Blue Jays' front office. I also analyzed the Roy Halladay trade, which showed that the Jays lost approximately 7.9 games because of the trade. In the post today, I want to look at the remaining meaningful trades made by the front office this year, in mostly chronological order.
To recap quickly, Alex Anthopoulos was promoted on October 3. His first move, trading Halladay, was completed on December 16. Just a week later, on December 23, he made his second significant trade. Looking for a shutdown late-inning relief pitcher, the Mariners believed that Brandon League could help the team as they challenged for a playoff berth this year (that turned out well!). In return, the Jays received Brandon Morrow, a highly anticipated starter with outstanding "stuff". The Mariners drafted him 5th overall in 2006, but never seemed to be able to decide whether to turn him into a starter or try to have him become a closer. Morrow never panned out in his years with Seattle, so he was traded to the Jays. He finally had his breakout season this year, showing occasional flashes of brilliance (see here) while finishing 10-7 with an ERA of 4.49. He ended the 2010 season with a WAR of 1.6, while League struggled, posting a -0.1 WAR. Assuming an "average" replacement for League in the bullpen, the Jays gained 1.5 wins from the trade. The trade was one-sided, even when it was made, that many people wondered if it was part of the Halladay trade (where Cliff Lee ended up going to Seattle), but that was not true. The Jays simply made a great trade, which paid off this year and should pay off for many years to come.
After the two big December trades, Anthopoulos mostly tinkered with the lineup until the season started, with only a couple of minor moves. On January 20, the Jays traded for relief pitcher Merkin Valdez, sending cash considerations to the Giants. Valdez ended the year with a -0.1 WAR. On February 6, AA traded for Dana Eveland, a pitcher with the A's. Eveland ended the year with a -0.8 WAR, but assuming an average replacement player, we have already counted his stats in the Roy Halladay trade (see part one), so we cannot count them again. Eveland pitched poorly enough to be sent to the Pirates on June 1 for Ronald Uviedo, who did not pitch in the MLB this year. There were also some insignificant moves scattered throughout the year where AA acquired minor league players such as Zach Johnson and Casey Fien.
The next significant trade was made on April 15. The Jays acquired outfielder Fred Lewis from the Giants for a player to be named later or cash. Lewis ended the year with a 0.8 WAR, which looks like it helped the team, but we must also take into consideration some other things. The plate appearances that Lewis had would have been given to someone else if he had not been acquired. The likely recipients of the PAs would have been Travis Snider and Dewayne Wise, with most going to Snider. In 319 PAs, Snider had a 0.9 WAR, so if assuming that 319 of the 440 PAs that Lewis had would have gone to Snider and Snider would have a constant performance, those 319 PAs could have been worth 0.9 wins. If we give the other 121 PAs to Wise, who had a 0.1 WAR in 118 PAs, he probably would have produced about 0.1 more wins. So overall, those 440 PAs would have produced about 1.0 wins if Lewis had not been acquired. So the net loss on the trade was actually -0.2 wins.
The final significant trade was made on July 14, when the Jays traded Alex Gonzalez to the Braves for Yunel Escobar and Jo-Jo Reyes (who did not pitch in the majors in 2010 for the Jays). Gonzalez had gotten off to a hot start with 17 home runs in the first 85 games of the year, only hit 6 more for the Braves. This trade was a classic case of selling high, with the 33-year old Gonzalez having a career year, while Escobar was in the doghouse in Atlanta but still had a lot of potential. Before the trade, Gonzalez had a 2.8 WAR, while Escobar only had a 0.9 WAR. However, after the trade, Gonzalez only had a 0.9 WAR while Escobar had a 1.0 WAR. So the net gain of the trade was 0.1 win, and considering the trade was made with the future in mind, turned out very well for this year (and should help out the next couple of years with Gonzalez slowing down and Escobar just hitting his peak).
Now that we have looked at each individual trade, we can see the overall result of the trading. Here is a quick summary:
Halladay trade: -7.9 wins
Morrow trade: +1.5 wins
Valdez trade: -0.1 wins
Lewis trade: -0.2 wins
Escobar trade: +0.1 wins
So the trades had an overall net of -6.6 wins (6.6 more losses). This means that had none of the trades been made, the Jays would have won between 6 and 7 more games this year. Looking at the AL East standings this year:
TB: 96-66 (won division)
NYY: 95-67 (won wild card)
BOS: 89-73
TOR: 85-77
So the Jays would have won between 91 and 92 games, putting them ahead of Boston but still out of the playoff picture. If we want to look at the best case scenario for this year only, then Halladay would not have been traded. If the Jays were going for the playoffs this year, they probably would not have traded Gonzalez, as he was the "rental" player in the deal, or the one that could help his team win now, not in the future. So if we assume only the Morrow trade was made (which may not be true, because the Mariners only traded Morrow after trading for Cliff Lee), the Jays would have gained 9.6 wins. That would have put them between 94 and 95 wins, ahead of Boston, and possibly one game behind or tied with the Yankees. Given that the Yankees somewhat tanked during the stretch in order to draw the Twins in the first round of the playoffs, they probably could have won more games if they were in a "real" race for the playoffs, and not just the division. So, we can say with confidence that the Jays still probably would not have made the playoffs (but you never know, if most of those extra wins had come against the Yankees, maybe they would have!).
Even in this fairly simple analysis, we can see that if the Jays really tried hard to make the playoffs this year, they still would have fallen just a little short, and would be sitting in a far worse position for the upcoming years. Seeing that almost every move this year besides the Halladay trade helped, or at least didn't hurt the Jays, the front office did a good job both strengthening the team now as well as building for the future. The jury is still out on the Halladay trade, and will be for awhile until all of Drabek, D'Arnaud, and Gose have played significant time in (hopefully) the majors. But the overall conclusion of this analysis is that Alex Anthopoulos and the rest of the front office did a very nice job with the trades this year, and hopefully the Jays will reap the benefits in the near future.
Showing posts with label Blue Jays. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Blue Jays. Show all posts
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Alex Anthopoulos and the Playoffs (Part 1)
This post started out as an analysis of how the Blue Jays could have possibly made the playoffs this year if they had not traded Roy Halladay, but it evolved into something much bigger. I want to look at all of the trades in the last 12 months and determine how well the Jays did in each trade for this year only, and then see if they could have made the playoffs by not trading anyone, or by only making certain trades.
The starting date of this analysis takes place on October 3, 2009, when the Jays, among other moves, fired J.P. Riccardi and promoted Alex Anthopoulos to general manager. This signaled a shift for the strategy of the front office, moving from signing older, high-priced veterans like Frank Thomas and A.J. Burnett to making the scouting staff the largest in the majors and developing the farm system. Although it has only been a year, the results are already palpable, and the future is looking bright for the Jays.
The first major move of Anthopoulus' reign as GM was to trade away Roy Halladay, who was set to become a free agent after this year and would not return to Toronto as he was in search of a playoff-caliber team. It was a difficult task, with one of the franchise's most popular players ever being traded, along with a very small market as many teams could not afford Halladay. Eventually, Philadelphia became just about the only option, which meant that they would have leverage over the Jays. Finally, on December 16, they Jays traded Doc to the Phillies for prospects Kyle Drabek, Travis D'Arnoud, and Michael Taylor. They then traded Taylor to the A's for Brett Wallace, another highly sought after prospect involved in the Matt Holliday trade. Later on this year, on July 29, AA traded Wallace to Houston for yet another prospect, Anthony Gose, who the Jays had been trying to acquire all along, but the Phillies had relented before shipping him to the Astros in the Roy Oswalt trade.
To determine the outcome of this trade (as well as every other trade), I am going to only look at this year's production. So even though the Halladay trade was to acquire prospects that will be major league ready in 2-3 years, I want to see how the trades played out this year. I am going to use the Wins Above Replacement statistic to measure each player's value to his team. Although it sounds simple, it can get complex (as it will in the Halladay trade), because we have to account for both the traded player's WAR as well as the WAR of the players who replaced the traded player.
This year, Roy Halladay had an overall WAR of 6.5, but -0.4 of that was due to offense, so if he had been playing for the Jays (with the DH), he would have had a WAR of 7.3. I am assuming all the of values would remain constant no matter what team the player is on. That was the easy part. Now we need to figure out which pitchers had starts this year that Halladay would have had if he pitched in Toronto. Doc made 33 starts this year, and conveniently, the top 5 starters for the Jays this year (Romero, Marcum, Cecil, Morrow, and Rzepczynski) had 139 starts, with 6 other pitchers recording a combined 33 starts. So presuming that Halladay would have started all of the other combined 33 starts, we can figure out exactly how much the Jays lost when they traded Halladay away.
The six other Blue Jays pitchers who started at least one game this year were (with starts in parentheses): Brian Tallet (5 starts), Jesse Litsch (9), Dana Eveland (9), Brad Mills (3), Shawn Hill (4), and Kyle Drabek (3). If we add up the WAR from each start, we can determine the total wins lost due to the trade. Tallet had an overall WAR of -1.4, but in his 5 starts his WAR was -0.35. Litsch only started, and had an overall WAR of -0.1. Eveland had an overall WAR of -0.8. In Mills' three starts, he had a WAR of 0.13. Hill had a WAR of 0.4, and finally Drabek had a WAR of 0.1. The total WAR for the 33 starts was -0.6, which means that if Roy Halladay were to make the 33 starts instead of these pitchers, the Jays would have won about 7.9 more games.
The Halladay trade was just the first of many trades this year by AA, so tomorrow I am going to post part 2, which will evaluate the rest of the trades and determine whether or not the Jays could have made the playoffs this year with certain trades. (See here for part 2)
The starting date of this analysis takes place on October 3, 2009, when the Jays, among other moves, fired J.P. Riccardi and promoted Alex Anthopoulos to general manager. This signaled a shift for the strategy of the front office, moving from signing older, high-priced veterans like Frank Thomas and A.J. Burnett to making the scouting staff the largest in the majors and developing the farm system. Although it has only been a year, the results are already palpable, and the future is looking bright for the Jays.
The first major move of Anthopoulus' reign as GM was to trade away Roy Halladay, who was set to become a free agent after this year and would not return to Toronto as he was in search of a playoff-caliber team. It was a difficult task, with one of the franchise's most popular players ever being traded, along with a very small market as many teams could not afford Halladay. Eventually, Philadelphia became just about the only option, which meant that they would have leverage over the Jays. Finally, on December 16, they Jays traded Doc to the Phillies for prospects Kyle Drabek, Travis D'Arnoud, and Michael Taylor. They then traded Taylor to the A's for Brett Wallace, another highly sought after prospect involved in the Matt Holliday trade. Later on this year, on July 29, AA traded Wallace to Houston for yet another prospect, Anthony Gose, who the Jays had been trying to acquire all along, but the Phillies had relented before shipping him to the Astros in the Roy Oswalt trade.
To determine the outcome of this trade (as well as every other trade), I am going to only look at this year's production. So even though the Halladay trade was to acquire prospects that will be major league ready in 2-3 years, I want to see how the trades played out this year. I am going to use the Wins Above Replacement statistic to measure each player's value to his team. Although it sounds simple, it can get complex (as it will in the Halladay trade), because we have to account for both the traded player's WAR as well as the WAR of the players who replaced the traded player.
This year, Roy Halladay had an overall WAR of 6.5, but -0.4 of that was due to offense, so if he had been playing for the Jays (with the DH), he would have had a WAR of 7.3. I am assuming all the of values would remain constant no matter what team the player is on. That was the easy part. Now we need to figure out which pitchers had starts this year that Halladay would have had if he pitched in Toronto. Doc made 33 starts this year, and conveniently, the top 5 starters for the Jays this year (Romero, Marcum, Cecil, Morrow, and Rzepczynski) had 139 starts, with 6 other pitchers recording a combined 33 starts. So presuming that Halladay would have started all of the other combined 33 starts, we can figure out exactly how much the Jays lost when they traded Halladay away.
The six other Blue Jays pitchers who started at least one game this year were (with starts in parentheses): Brian Tallet (5 starts), Jesse Litsch (9), Dana Eveland (9), Brad Mills (3), Shawn Hill (4), and Kyle Drabek (3). If we add up the WAR from each start, we can determine the total wins lost due to the trade. Tallet had an overall WAR of -1.4, but in his 5 starts his WAR was -0.35. Litsch only started, and had an overall WAR of -0.1. Eveland had an overall WAR of -0.8. In Mills' three starts, he had a WAR of 0.13. Hill had a WAR of 0.4, and finally Drabek had a WAR of 0.1. The total WAR for the 33 starts was -0.6, which means that if Roy Halladay were to make the 33 starts instead of these pitchers, the Jays would have won about 7.9 more games.
The Halladay trade was just the first of many trades this year by AA, so tomorrow I am going to post part 2, which will evaluate the rest of the trades and determine whether or not the Jays could have made the playoffs this year with certain trades. (See here for part 2)
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Fact of the Week XI: Most and Least Valuable Blue Jays Postseason Games
As the playoffs move past the championship series' and on to the World Series, I wanted to take a quick look at valuable, and not valuable, postseason games by a Blue Jays player and pitcher. Considering the Jays have only played 41 playoffs games ever, and haven't made the playoffs since they won the World Series back-to-back in 1992 and 1993, all of these games will be from the mid-80s and early 90s.
The most valuable game ever by a Blue Jays hitter was by Devon White, in game 4 of the 1993 World Series. His Win Probability Added (WPA) for that game was 0.719, which is extraordinarily high. It is actually the 11th most valuable game ever in the postseason by a player. In the 15-14 Blue Jays win, White went 3-for-5 with 2 runs and 4 RBIs. The big hit came in the top of the 8th inning, with 2 runners on and 2 out, with the Jays losing 14-13. White hit a two run triple to put the Jays on top 15-14, and the play increased the Jays' win expectancy from 24% to 74%.
The least valuable game ever by a Blue Jays hitter was John Olerud, in game 2 of the 1992 World Series. His WPA for the game was -0.273, as he went 0-for-4 with a strikeout. The biggest blow came in the top of the eighth with 1 out and runners on first and third and the Jays trailing 4-3. Olerud popped out to the third baseball, which resulted in a decrease in win expectancy of 16%. Coincidentally, the Jays still ended up winning the game 5-4, in large part because of Ed Sprague, who hit a pinch-hit, two-run home run in the top of the 9th to give the Jays the 5-4 lead. His one at-bat in the game increased the Jays' win expectancy by 67%, which was actually the second-most valuable postseason game by a Jays' hitter behind Devon White.
For pitchers, the most valuable postseason game ever pitched was by David Cone in game 2 of the ALCS in 1992. Cone pitched 8 innings, giving up 5 hits and only one run, and the Jays won 3-1, resulting in a game score of 71 and a win probability added of 0.413.
The least valuable postseason pitching performance was by Todd Stottlemyre in game 4 of the 1993 World Series. This was the 15-14 Jays win in which Devon White had the most valuable position player game. Stottlemyre started the game for the Jays and went 2 innings, giving up 6 runs, and had a WPA of -0.486. Interestingly enough, the fourth worst pitching performance was by Al Leiter, who came in to relieve Stottlemyre, pitching 2.2 innings and giving up another 6 runs. Amazingly, the Jays still won, and in both cases of the least value performances they had comeback victories which overshadowed the bad performances by players.
Hopefully in the next couple of years the Blue Jays will be able to add some players to any of the lists above, which will mean that they made the playoffs again after a long drought.
The most valuable game ever by a Blue Jays hitter was by Devon White, in game 4 of the 1993 World Series. His Win Probability Added (WPA) for that game was 0.719, which is extraordinarily high. It is actually the 11th most valuable game ever in the postseason by a player. In the 15-14 Blue Jays win, White went 3-for-5 with 2 runs and 4 RBIs. The big hit came in the top of the 8th inning, with 2 runners on and 2 out, with the Jays losing 14-13. White hit a two run triple to put the Jays on top 15-14, and the play increased the Jays' win expectancy from 24% to 74%.
The least valuable game ever by a Blue Jays hitter was John Olerud, in game 2 of the 1992 World Series. His WPA for the game was -0.273, as he went 0-for-4 with a strikeout. The biggest blow came in the top of the eighth with 1 out and runners on first and third and the Jays trailing 4-3. Olerud popped out to the third baseball, which resulted in a decrease in win expectancy of 16%. Coincidentally, the Jays still ended up winning the game 5-4, in large part because of Ed Sprague, who hit a pinch-hit, two-run home run in the top of the 9th to give the Jays the 5-4 lead. His one at-bat in the game increased the Jays' win expectancy by 67%, which was actually the second-most valuable postseason game by a Jays' hitter behind Devon White.
For pitchers, the most valuable postseason game ever pitched was by David Cone in game 2 of the ALCS in 1992. Cone pitched 8 innings, giving up 5 hits and only one run, and the Jays won 3-1, resulting in a game score of 71 and a win probability added of 0.413.
The least valuable postseason pitching performance was by Todd Stottlemyre in game 4 of the 1993 World Series. This was the 15-14 Jays win in which Devon White had the most valuable position player game. Stottlemyre started the game for the Jays and went 2 innings, giving up 6 runs, and had a WPA of -0.486. Interestingly enough, the fourth worst pitching performance was by Al Leiter, who came in to relieve Stottlemyre, pitching 2.2 innings and giving up another 6 runs. Amazingly, the Jays still won, and in both cases of the least value performances they had comeback victories which overshadowed the bad performances by players.
Hopefully in the next couple of years the Blue Jays will be able to add some players to any of the lists above, which will mean that they made the playoffs again after a long drought.
Friday, October 1, 2010
Fact of the Week VIII: Home Run Records
The Blue Jays have accomplished a couple of notable feats in the past few days with home runs. The first happened on Wednesday night when John Buck homered, his 20th of the season, to become the 6th different Blue Jays to hit 20 home runs this year. They became only the 18th team in MLB history to have six hitters to hit at least 20 home runs each. If Edwin Encarnacion manages to hit two home runs in the last three games of the season (he currently has 18 HRs), the team will become only the 5th team to ever have seven players with at least 20 home runs, joining the 1996 Orioles, 2005 Rangers, 2009 Yankees, and the 2000 Blue Jays. No National League team has ever done it, possibly because they would need seven out of eight of their starting position players to do it as opposed to seven out of nine in the American League. One final note is that Alex Gonzalez, traded to the Braves midseason for Yunel Escobar, had 17 home runs as a Jay (only 6 so far with the Braves) and Escobar (who had 0 home runs as a Brave) has 4 home runs as a Jay. So the shortstop position for the Jays also has hit 20+ home runs, which means that the Jays possibly could have become the first team to ever have 8 players hit at least 20 home runs each (if they hadn't traded for Escobar, which I'm glad they did, and if EE hits 2 homers in the next three games).
On a related note, after Thursday night's blowout of the Twins, in which the Jays hit six home runs, they now have 253 home runs as a team so far this year. That is the 4th highest total in MLB history, trailing only the 1997 Mariners (264 HRs), the 2005 Rangers (260 HRs), and the 1996 Orioles (257 HRs). If they continue their pace of 1.591 HRs per game over the final three games, they should end up with 257.77 home runs on the season, which would be good for third all-time. It is interesting to see many of the same teams on both of these lists (the '97 Mariners also had 6 players with at least 20 home runs). One great home run hitter will not vault your team into the home run record books, the team needs at least 5-6 hitters who all can hit at least 20+ home runs, with usually one or two of those players hitting at least 30 or more (Vernon Wells with 31 and Jose Bautista with 54 so far on this year's team).
One final note of interest: also in last night's game, Jose Bautista hit his 53rd and 54th home runs of the season. The first was an upper-deck grand slam, the second an opposite field home run, the first home run to right field in his career! (Unfortunately HitTracker hasn't quite updated his home run total, so we cannot view his home run scatter plot with the one outlier to right field.) Although pitchers next year may try to beat him with outside pitches, he has again proved that he can hit pretty much anything you throw to home. Sure, he would much rather hit an inside fastball (as the first home run showed!), but if you must continue to pound the outside corner, he will either take a good swing and put the ball into right field, or simply walk. Speaking of walks, Bautista needs one more walk this weekend to become only the 14th player to ever have 50 home runs and 100 walks in one season.
So although this weekend will not bring playoff drama for the Blue Jays, there are a couple of milestones that they could reach with good performances. Hopefully they can win a couple of games, hit a few more home runs, and end 2010 with a bang.
On a related note, after Thursday night's blowout of the Twins, in which the Jays hit six home runs, they now have 253 home runs as a team so far this year. That is the 4th highest total in MLB history, trailing only the 1997 Mariners (264 HRs), the 2005 Rangers (260 HRs), and the 1996 Orioles (257 HRs). If they continue their pace of 1.591 HRs per game over the final three games, they should end up with 257.77 home runs on the season, which would be good for third all-time. It is interesting to see many of the same teams on both of these lists (the '97 Mariners also had 6 players with at least 20 home runs). One great home run hitter will not vault your team into the home run record books, the team needs at least 5-6 hitters who all can hit at least 20+ home runs, with usually one or two of those players hitting at least 30 or more (Vernon Wells with 31 and Jose Bautista with 54 so far on this year's team).
One final note of interest: also in last night's game, Jose Bautista hit his 53rd and 54th home runs of the season. The first was an upper-deck grand slam, the second an opposite field home run, the first home run to right field in his career! (Unfortunately HitTracker hasn't quite updated his home run total, so we cannot view his home run scatter plot with the one outlier to right field.) Although pitchers next year may try to beat him with outside pitches, he has again proved that he can hit pretty much anything you throw to home. Sure, he would much rather hit an inside fastball (as the first home run showed!), but if you must continue to pound the outside corner, he will either take a good swing and put the ball into right field, or simply walk. Speaking of walks, Bautista needs one more walk this weekend to become only the 14th player to ever have 50 home runs and 100 walks in one season.
So although this weekend will not bring playoff drama for the Blue Jays, there are a couple of milestones that they could reach with good performances. Hopefully they can win a couple of games, hit a few more home runs, and end 2010 with a bang.
Friday, August 20, 2010
Fact of the Week II: Home Runs
We all know that Jose Bautista has been having a great season. He is currently leading the league in home runs with 37, 6 more than any other player. But we probably didn't realize just how great of a season it has been in comparison to all other Blue Jays seasons.
Only eight times has a player for the Blue Jays hit at least 40 home runs, and only six players have done it (Carlos Delgado did it three times, in 1999, 2000, and 2003). Bautista already has 37 home runs, and is on pace for 50, which would be the first time a Blue Jays batter has hit 50 home runs in a season (the highest single season total is 47 by George Bell in 1987). Bautista should at least hit 48 home runs to break the single season record.
Pretty good, right? It actually gets better. Bautista is not only hitting a lot of home runs, he is actually getting on base a ton too (he is currently tied with Daric Barton for the AL lead in walks with 73). Bautista is already only the third player in franchise history with at least 37 home runs and an on-base percentage of at least .370. If he can keep his OBP at .370 and hit just eight more home runs, he will have the most home runs by a Jays player with an OBP of at least .370.
So we can see that this season has been a very special one for Jose Bautista and the Blue Jays. Although he has not hit for a high average, he has excelled in a few key areas, such as hitting home runs, walking, and also throwing out baserunners (he is second in the MLB this year with 10 assists, only one behind Shin-Soo Choo). Hopefully he can play this well the rest of the season and for the next couple of years.
Only eight times has a player for the Blue Jays hit at least 40 home runs, and only six players have done it (Carlos Delgado did it three times, in 1999, 2000, and 2003). Bautista already has 37 home runs, and is on pace for 50, which would be the first time a Blue Jays batter has hit 50 home runs in a season (the highest single season total is 47 by George Bell in 1987). Bautista should at least hit 48 home runs to break the single season record.
Pretty good, right? It actually gets better. Bautista is not only hitting a lot of home runs, he is actually getting on base a ton too (he is currently tied with Daric Barton for the AL lead in walks with 73). Bautista is already only the third player in franchise history with at least 37 home runs and an on-base percentage of at least .370. If he can keep his OBP at .370 and hit just eight more home runs, he will have the most home runs by a Jays player with an OBP of at least .370.
So we can see that this season has been a very special one for Jose Bautista and the Blue Jays. Although he has not hit for a high average, he has excelled in a few key areas, such as hitting home runs, walking, and also throwing out baserunners (he is second in the MLB this year with 10 assists, only one behind Shin-Soo Choo). Hopefully he can play this well the rest of the season and for the next couple of years.
Monday, August 16, 2010
Park Factor at SkyDome
In a post last week, I said the following:
You can read all about ballpark adjustments and factors here. That post will show you how to calculate the ballpark factor for a park over one year or multiple years, but since the statistics have already been calculated and are already on the corresponding team and year page, you can take them from there. The numbers will all be around 100, as 100 represents a "medium" ballpark, with no advantages to batters or pitchers. If the number is above 100, the ballpark favors batters, and if it is below 100, it favors pitchers.
I have taken statistics from each year for the Blue Jays since 1990. The SkyDome opened midway through 1989, and since the statistics will be skewed for that year I decided not to include it, but since then the Jays have played all of their home games at the SkyDome. I took the ballpark factor for both multi-year and one year, the number of home runs and number of extra base hits at the SkyDome and away each year (81 games, except for 1994 and 1995 because of the strike, and 2010, which is projected), and finally the batting average and batting average on balls in play for the Jays at home and away. I have constructed a couple of graphs which I believe show that the SkyDome is in fact a fairly friendly hitter's park. (Click on any graph to enlarge it and see more detail.)
The first graph is all home statistics. I wanted to compare the park factor to the number of home runs the Jays hit at home each year. As we can see by the trendlines, the park factor and number of home runs have no correlation at all, as the park factor has stayed fairly constant (actually decreasing by about 0.2 per year), while the home runs have varied widely, with an average gain of 1.3 more home runs per year. This graph shows that the park factor calculations take into account a lot more than just home run totals.
Now I am going to look at home and away splits. Each of the following graphs shows a different statistic presented in home vs away fashion, and the goal is to get a visual representation of whether or not the SkyDome is in fact a hitter's park. Although on average, teams should hit better at home than on the road (familiarity of the stadium and its intricacies, fans cheering instead of booing, the comfort of home, etc.), the actual increase is hard to quantify, and thus, we must assume that home and away statistics should be even. We are also assuming that the road statistics are based on an average ballpark factor of 100, because we are trying to compare home vs away statistics, we want to determine the "friendliness" of the SkyDome to batters.
The first graph shows the number of home runs hit by the Blue Jays at home and on the road each season from 1990 to 2010. This graph is a pretty clear indication that the Jays hit a lot more home runs at home than on the road, especially in the last decade or so. The trendlines show that approximately 1.3 more home runs are hit at home per year, while only about 0.5 more home runs are hit on the road per year. So, we can say with good certainty that the SkyDome is more home run friendly than the average American League ballpark (since the large majority of their away games were played in the AL).
The next graph will compare the extra base hits at home and on the road. Although we already looked at home runs, it is important to look at extra base hits because we want to determine whether the balls that are not home runs on the road will either fall in the gaps for doubles or triples or whether they will be caught. If they find gaps, then the away stadium is still mostly hitter friendly, but if the balls that usually leave the park at home get caught on the road, then we know for sure that the SkyDome is much more hitter friendly for power statistics. We can see from the graphs that almost every year there are more extra base hits at home than on the road, other than a couple of isolated years in the 90s. So since there are more home runs and just as many extra base hits at home, we can safely say that the SkyDome is an above-average hitter friendly park.
The last thing I want to look at is the batting average splits. We have seen that the SkyDome is hitter friendly for power, but we also want to find out if it is hitter friendly for average. I chose to look at both batting average and batting average on balls in play, since batting average can be very inconsistent (although team batting statistics for 81 games is a fairly large sample size). Although the trendlines are almost constant in all of the cases below, we can take the average average for each statistic from them. The average batting average at home is 0.267, and on the road it is 0.264. For BABIP, at home the average is 0.297, while on the road it is 0.294. Although these are only small differences, over the course of 21 years they can become significant changes. Although we may not be able to say that hitting for average at the SkyDome is easier than on the road (see the above explanation for why hitting at home may be easier), we can say that it is at least just as easy at home as on the road.
So after taking a look at the home vs away splits for the last 21 years, I am confident that what I said last week is true. I am glad that my analysis shows that what I said was true, and that I wasn't just saying false facts. SkyDome is in fact a hitter friendly park in comparison to other American League parks, both for power and somewhat for average.
Skydome (well the Rogers Center) does seem like it's a fairly hitter-friendly park (in the early 2000s, it's "Park Factor" was over 100 consistently, which means it favored hitters, while in the last couple of years it has been below 100 a couple of times).I have thought about the statement a lot, and decided to do some more research on the topic, as I do not like making statements without valid statistical analysis backing me up.
You can read all about ballpark adjustments and factors here. That post will show you how to calculate the ballpark factor for a park over one year or multiple years, but since the statistics have already been calculated and are already on the corresponding team and year page, you can take them from there. The numbers will all be around 100, as 100 represents a "medium" ballpark, with no advantages to batters or pitchers. If the number is above 100, the ballpark favors batters, and if it is below 100, it favors pitchers.
I have taken statistics from each year for the Blue Jays since 1990. The SkyDome opened midway through 1989, and since the statistics will be skewed for that year I decided not to include it, but since then the Jays have played all of their home games at the SkyDome. I took the ballpark factor for both multi-year and one year, the number of home runs and number of extra base hits at the SkyDome and away each year (81 games, except for 1994 and 1995 because of the strike, and 2010, which is projected), and finally the batting average and batting average on balls in play for the Jays at home and away. I have constructed a couple of graphs which I believe show that the SkyDome is in fact a fairly friendly hitter's park. (Click on any graph to enlarge it and see more detail.)
The first graph is all home statistics. I wanted to compare the park factor to the number of home runs the Jays hit at home each year. As we can see by the trendlines, the park factor and number of home runs have no correlation at all, as the park factor has stayed fairly constant (actually decreasing by about 0.2 per year), while the home runs have varied widely, with an average gain of 1.3 more home runs per year. This graph shows that the park factor calculations take into account a lot more than just home run totals.
The first graph shows the number of home runs hit by the Blue Jays at home and on the road each season from 1990 to 2010. This graph is a pretty clear indication that the Jays hit a lot more home runs at home than on the road, especially in the last decade or so. The trendlines show that approximately 1.3 more home runs are hit at home per year, while only about 0.5 more home runs are hit on the road per year. So, we can say with good certainty that the SkyDome is more home run friendly than the average American League ballpark (since the large majority of their away games were played in the AL).
The next graph will compare the extra base hits at home and on the road. Although we already looked at home runs, it is important to look at extra base hits because we want to determine whether the balls that are not home runs on the road will either fall in the gaps for doubles or triples or whether they will be caught. If they find gaps, then the away stadium is still mostly hitter friendly, but if the balls that usually leave the park at home get caught on the road, then we know for sure that the SkyDome is much more hitter friendly for power statistics. We can see from the graphs that almost every year there are more extra base hits at home than on the road, other than a couple of isolated years in the 90s. So since there are more home runs and just as many extra base hits at home, we can safely say that the SkyDome is an above-average hitter friendly park.
The last thing I want to look at is the batting average splits. We have seen that the SkyDome is hitter friendly for power, but we also want to find out if it is hitter friendly for average. I chose to look at both batting average and batting average on balls in play, since batting average can be very inconsistent (although team batting statistics for 81 games is a fairly large sample size). Although the trendlines are almost constant in all of the cases below, we can take the average average for each statistic from them. The average batting average at home is 0.267, and on the road it is 0.264. For BABIP, at home the average is 0.297, while on the road it is 0.294. Although these are only small differences, over the course of 21 years they can become significant changes. Although we may not be able to say that hitting for average at the SkyDome is easier than on the road (see the above explanation for why hitting at home may be easier), we can say that it is at least just as easy at home as on the road.
Friday, August 13, 2010
Fact of the Week I: Grand Slams
Every Friday, I am going to introduce a fact that is interesting to me, but may or may not be interesting to you. So this week, I am going to look at grand slams.
So far this year, the Blue Jays have only hit two grand slams. Considering that there have already been 91 grand slams hit so far this season, the fact that the Jays have only hit two is surprising, especially considering they are leading the league in home runs by a wide margin.
Perhaps even more surprising is that the Jays have already given up five grand slams. Since the average major league team should hit and give up the same amount of grand slams (about 3 per team so far), it is interesting that the Jays have given up three more than they have hit (again, especially considering their home run exploits). And from July 3 to July 18, they had actually given up 5 and not hit one, before Yunel Escobar hit his 1st home run of the season (and 1st as a Jay).
So there is the inaugural fact of the week. Grand slams are always interesting, and although so far this year there has been an interesting set of results for the Jays, the data set is simply not yet large enough to conclude that there is a definitive pattern going on. Thus, the grand slam belongs in the fact of the week.
So far this year, the Blue Jays have only hit two grand slams. Considering that there have already been 91 grand slams hit so far this season, the fact that the Jays have only hit two is surprising, especially considering they are leading the league in home runs by a wide margin.
Perhaps even more surprising is that the Jays have already given up five grand slams. Since the average major league team should hit and give up the same amount of grand slams (about 3 per team so far), it is interesting that the Jays have given up three more than they have hit (again, especially considering their home run exploits). And from July 3 to July 18, they had actually given up 5 and not hit one, before Yunel Escobar hit his 1st home run of the season (and 1st as a Jay).
So there is the inaugural fact of the week. Grand slams are always interesting, and although so far this year there has been an interesting set of results for the Jays, the data set is simply not yet large enough to conclude that there is a definitive pattern going on. Thus, the grand slam belongs in the fact of the week.
Best, Worst Performances vs the Jays
As a follow-up to my post yesterday, where I analyzed the best and worst performances by Jays' players, today I am going to analyze the best and worst performances so far this year by players against the Blue Jays. Again, I am going to use WPA as a measuring stick, as it is the most useful game-to-game statistical tool.
The best hitting against the Jays so far was Mark Teahen of the White Sox on April 12. Teahen went 3 for 5, with a single, triple, and home run, and 3 RBIs. His leadoff homerun in the top of the 9th inning tied the game at 7, and raised the probability of the White Sox winning by 33%. Then, in the 11th inning, Mark Kotsay led off with a single, and Teahen drove him in with a triple, again raising the probability of the White Sox winning by 33%. Overall, he had a WPA of 0.761, on the day, easily the highest WPA by a Jays' opponent this season.
The best pitching performances against the Jays so far can be found here. Ervin Santana's complete game win on April 18 (boy, was that a bad week for the Jays!) has been the best performance so far. In the Angels' 3-1 win, Santana only allowed 4 hits, and the only run was an Adam Lind solo home run with 2 outs in the bottom of the ninth inning. Santana never faced more than 4 hitters in an inning, and before the home run had retired 17 Jays in a row (a Lind single in the 4th was the last hit). He steadily gained WPA over the course of the game, and since the Angels were already up 3-0 and only needed one more out to win when Lind hit the home run, his WPA barely dropped. He ended up with a WPA of 0.675, pretty easily the top pitching performance against the Jays this year. Surprisingly, the performance only merited a Game Score of 81, and is only the 4th best pitching performance (measured by Game Score) this year by an Angels' pitcher.
Now that we have taken a look at the best performances (well, the worst from the Jays perspective), we can take a look at the worst performances so far this year against the Jays. This shows the worst hitting performances, and Mike Sweeney's 0 for 5 performance on May 19 leads the way. He was already 0 for 3 with a strikeout when he came to the plate in the bottom of the 7th in a 3-2 game (Jays leading) with runners on second and third and 2 out, and when he popped out to second the Jays probability of winning increased by 13%. Then, in the bottom of the 9th, with the Jays still leading 3-2, there were runners on 1st and 2nd and two outs when Sweeney flew out to deep left, increasing the Jays probability of winning by 17% (to 100%). Those two outs were key in his WPA of -0.381 for the game. His aLI was 2.790 for the game, which means that because he made key outs at key points in the game, his WPA took a tumble.
Finally, the worst pitching performance against the Jays so far this year belongs to Bobby Jenks on May 9. Jenks entered the game in the top of the 9th inning with the White Sox winning 7-5, and did not record an out while giving up 4 hits and 4 runs (3 earned). The inning went like this: ground-rule double, single, home run, single, and that was it for Jenks as Scott Linebrink replaced him. The 3-run home run by Fred Lewis single-handedly increased the Jays winning probability by 51%, from 31% to 82%. Overall, Jenks had a WPA of -0.767, and the Jays ended up winning the game 9-7. Interestingly, Jonathon Papelbon's disaster of a ninth inning yesterday finished second on the list of worst pitching performances with a WPA of -0.739. I will be doing a post later this week about last night's game and blown saves.
So there are your best and worst performances by a Jays' opponent so far in 2010. The best performances seemed to occur mostly in April, while the worst performances happened in May (which probably have a correlation to the Jays 12-12 record in April and 19-10 record in May). Surprisingly, none of the games discussed yesterday were repeats today, but some of them were lower down on the list of good and bad performances.
The best hitting against the Jays so far was Mark Teahen of the White Sox on April 12. Teahen went 3 for 5, with a single, triple, and home run, and 3 RBIs. His leadoff homerun in the top of the 9th inning tied the game at 7, and raised the probability of the White Sox winning by 33%. Then, in the 11th inning, Mark Kotsay led off with a single, and Teahen drove him in with a triple, again raising the probability of the White Sox winning by 33%. Overall, he had a WPA of 0.761, on the day, easily the highest WPA by a Jays' opponent this season.
The best pitching performances against the Jays so far can be found here. Ervin Santana's complete game win on April 18 (boy, was that a bad week for the Jays!) has been the best performance so far. In the Angels' 3-1 win, Santana only allowed 4 hits, and the only run was an Adam Lind solo home run with 2 outs in the bottom of the ninth inning. Santana never faced more than 4 hitters in an inning, and before the home run had retired 17 Jays in a row (a Lind single in the 4th was the last hit). He steadily gained WPA over the course of the game, and since the Angels were already up 3-0 and only needed one more out to win when Lind hit the home run, his WPA barely dropped. He ended up with a WPA of 0.675, pretty easily the top pitching performance against the Jays this year. Surprisingly, the performance only merited a Game Score of 81, and is only the 4th best pitching performance (measured by Game Score) this year by an Angels' pitcher.
Now that we have taken a look at the best performances (well, the worst from the Jays perspective), we can take a look at the worst performances so far this year against the Jays. This shows the worst hitting performances, and Mike Sweeney's 0 for 5 performance on May 19 leads the way. He was already 0 for 3 with a strikeout when he came to the plate in the bottom of the 7th in a 3-2 game (Jays leading) with runners on second and third and 2 out, and when he popped out to second the Jays probability of winning increased by 13%. Then, in the bottom of the 9th, with the Jays still leading 3-2, there were runners on 1st and 2nd and two outs when Sweeney flew out to deep left, increasing the Jays probability of winning by 17% (to 100%). Those two outs were key in his WPA of -0.381 for the game. His aLI was 2.790 for the game, which means that because he made key outs at key points in the game, his WPA took a tumble.
Finally, the worst pitching performance against the Jays so far this year belongs to Bobby Jenks on May 9. Jenks entered the game in the top of the 9th inning with the White Sox winning 7-5, and did not record an out while giving up 4 hits and 4 runs (3 earned). The inning went like this: ground-rule double, single, home run, single, and that was it for Jenks as Scott Linebrink replaced him. The 3-run home run by Fred Lewis single-handedly increased the Jays winning probability by 51%, from 31% to 82%. Overall, Jenks had a WPA of -0.767, and the Jays ended up winning the game 9-7. Interestingly, Jonathon Papelbon's disaster of a ninth inning yesterday finished second on the list of worst pitching performances with a WPA of -0.739. I will be doing a post later this week about last night's game and blown saves.
So there are your best and worst performances by a Jays' opponent so far in 2010. The best performances seemed to occur mostly in April, while the worst performances happened in May (which probably have a correlation to the Jays 12-12 record in April and 19-10 record in May). Surprisingly, none of the games discussed yesterday were repeats today, but some of them were lower down on the list of good and bad performances.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Best, Worst Jays Performances so far in 2010
I thought it would be interesting to do a quick study on the best and worst batting and pitching performances so far this year. A quick way to measure the value of a performance is WPA, which is Win Probability Added*. It sums the value of each play made by a certain player in a game. For a quick example, say that Vernon Wells comes up in an inning with the Jays chance of winning at 45% (e.g. down by one in the middle innings). If Wells hits a home run, and the chance of winning increases to 50%, then the value of the home run is 5%. If you add up (or subtract) the total changes in chances of winning the games, you will get WPA. It is a little confusing at first, but it is an extremely useful (if not the most useful) statistic for measuring a player's contribution to winning individual games or his value over a season or career.
*Quick note: I am using the WPA from Baseball-Reference, which may differ from that of Bill James or FanGraphs as each site has a slightly different WPA formula, but all numbers end up very close
The first thing we are going to look at is the best performances for Jays hitters. This shows the the most valuable game so far this year by a Jays hitter was Adam Lind against the Cleveland Indians on May 5. The Jays won the game 5-4, as Lind hit a 2-run home run with 2 outs in the 9th inning and the Jays down by 1 run. For the game, he went 2 for 4 with a walk, a run, and 2 RBIs. FanGraphs shows that the home run had a WPA value of .724, as the probability of the Jays winning the game went from 8% to 80.5%. That game by Adam Lind, and especially the home run, is the most valuable hitting performance by any Jays player so far this year.
The next thing to look at is the best performance by a Jays pitcher. Any guesses on what the result might be? Yep, it was Brandon Morrow's gem on Sunday against the Rays that had the highest WPA, which corresponds to what I described here this week. One of the biggest reasons why it was so high was because of aLI, or the Average Leverage Index. aLI measures the average pressure that a player will face in each situation, with 1 being average pressure, under 1 being low pressure, and above 1 being high pressure. (An interesting sidenote is that the top 12 best pitching performances are from starters, while we will see that 6 of the 7 worst pitching performances are from relievers. This has a lot to do with aLI, as the best performances are usually when pitchers pitch 8 or 9 shutout innings in a close ball game, while the worst performances are usually when relievers enter a close game and get lit up.) Morrow had an aLI of 1.454, which was also higher than any of the other performances on the list. A big reason why it was so high was because the Jays were only winning 1-0 throughout the entire game, so Morrow could not take any innings off because of a big lead, but had to pitch hard the entire game.
Now, the flip side. We have looked at the best performances of this year so far, now we need to look at the worst. First up, the worst hitting performances so far. Alex Gonzalez's June 23 game against St. Louis comes in as the worst performance so far with a WPA of -0.376. Gonzalez went 0 for 3 with a walk, and 2 double plays grounded into. Both double plays came after leadoff singles by Vernon Wells (in the 4th and 9th innings), and since the Jays ended up with a 1-0 loss, any run would have helped a lot. The 9th inning double play was the play with the largest change in WPA for the Jays, as the Jays went from having a 34.2% chance of winning to only a 4.9% chance of winning (WPA of -0.294). That play, along with his hitless night, gives him the top spot in the worst hitting performance of this year.
Finally, we are going to look at the worst pitching performance of this year. I don't know about you, but when I think about bad pitching so far this year, one name pops into my head: Kevin Gregg. Gregg has gotten a lot of saves (25 so far), but has also blown a couple (4 so far, resulting in an 86% save percentage). But to me, it always seems as if he pitches well under the least pressure, that is, if he comes into the 9th with a 3-run lead against the Orioles, he will always get the save, but if he comes into the 9th with a 1-run lead on the Yankees, he will blow it. And when we take a look at the leaderboard, Gregg's name is all over it. He actually holds the top 3 spots for worst pitching performances, but the one that takes the cake is his performance against Seattle on May 20. He came in with a 3-1 lead, and then: single, single, walk, walk, sac fly, single, game over. Gregg's line: 0.1 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 3 ER, BS, and L. He threw 25 pitches, only 12 for strikes, and his WPA was an astoundingly bad -0.905, as the Jays had over a 90% chance of winning when he entered, and ended up losing.
There are your best and worst performances so far in 2010. An interesting note is that all performances came in 1-run games, with the games winning 5-4 and 1-0, and losing 1-0 and 4-3 in the respective order of the performances. This again has to do with aLI. The higher the aLI, the higher the probability that a single play (or a couple plays in a row) can swing the entire outcome of the game. And although we measured everything in terms of WPA, I believe that the results we have come up with should pass the "gut-check"; that is, if you were to eyeball some of the best and worst performances so far this year, many of these performances would be at the very top (or very bottom).
We will check back on this post at the end of the year, to find out if the results will still be the best and worst performances after 162 games. Also, tomorrow I will be working on a post similar to this one, for the best and worst performances by opposing players when they are facing the Jays. I would not be surprised if many of the same games we looked at today will be involved tomorrow.
*Quick note: I am using the WPA from Baseball-Reference, which may differ from that of Bill James or FanGraphs as each site has a slightly different WPA formula, but all numbers end up very close
The first thing we are going to look at is the best performances for Jays hitters. This shows the the most valuable game so far this year by a Jays hitter was Adam Lind against the Cleveland Indians on May 5. The Jays won the game 5-4, as Lind hit a 2-run home run with 2 outs in the 9th inning and the Jays down by 1 run. For the game, he went 2 for 4 with a walk, a run, and 2 RBIs. FanGraphs shows that the home run had a WPA value of .724, as the probability of the Jays winning the game went from 8% to 80.5%. That game by Adam Lind, and especially the home run, is the most valuable hitting performance by any Jays player so far this year.
The next thing to look at is the best performance by a Jays pitcher. Any guesses on what the result might be? Yep, it was Brandon Morrow's gem on Sunday against the Rays that had the highest WPA, which corresponds to what I described here this week. One of the biggest reasons why it was so high was because of aLI, or the Average Leverage Index. aLI measures the average pressure that a player will face in each situation, with 1 being average pressure, under 1 being low pressure, and above 1 being high pressure. (An interesting sidenote is that the top 12 best pitching performances are from starters, while we will see that 6 of the 7 worst pitching performances are from relievers. This has a lot to do with aLI, as the best performances are usually when pitchers pitch 8 or 9 shutout innings in a close ball game, while the worst performances are usually when relievers enter a close game and get lit up.) Morrow had an aLI of 1.454, which was also higher than any of the other performances on the list. A big reason why it was so high was because the Jays were only winning 1-0 throughout the entire game, so Morrow could not take any innings off because of a big lead, but had to pitch hard the entire game.
Now, the flip side. We have looked at the best performances of this year so far, now we need to look at the worst. First up, the worst hitting performances so far. Alex Gonzalez's June 23 game against St. Louis comes in as the worst performance so far with a WPA of -0.376. Gonzalez went 0 for 3 with a walk, and 2 double plays grounded into. Both double plays came after leadoff singles by Vernon Wells (in the 4th and 9th innings), and since the Jays ended up with a 1-0 loss, any run would have helped a lot. The 9th inning double play was the play with the largest change in WPA for the Jays, as the Jays went from having a 34.2% chance of winning to only a 4.9% chance of winning (WPA of -0.294). That play, along with his hitless night, gives him the top spot in the worst hitting performance of this year.
Finally, we are going to look at the worst pitching performance of this year. I don't know about you, but when I think about bad pitching so far this year, one name pops into my head: Kevin Gregg. Gregg has gotten a lot of saves (25 so far), but has also blown a couple (4 so far, resulting in an 86% save percentage). But to me, it always seems as if he pitches well under the least pressure, that is, if he comes into the 9th with a 3-run lead against the Orioles, he will always get the save, but if he comes into the 9th with a 1-run lead on the Yankees, he will blow it. And when we take a look at the leaderboard, Gregg's name is all over it. He actually holds the top 3 spots for worst pitching performances, but the one that takes the cake is his performance against Seattle on May 20. He came in with a 3-1 lead, and then: single, single, walk, walk, sac fly, single, game over. Gregg's line: 0.1 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 3 ER, BS, and L. He threw 25 pitches, only 12 for strikes, and his WPA was an astoundingly bad -0.905, as the Jays had over a 90% chance of winning when he entered, and ended up losing.
There are your best and worst performances so far in 2010. An interesting note is that all performances came in 1-run games, with the games winning 5-4 and 1-0, and losing 1-0 and 4-3 in the respective order of the performances. This again has to do with aLI. The higher the aLI, the higher the probability that a single play (or a couple plays in a row) can swing the entire outcome of the game. And although we measured everything in terms of WPA, I believe that the results we have come up with should pass the "gut-check"; that is, if you were to eyeball some of the best and worst performances so far this year, many of these performances would be at the very top (or very bottom).
We will check back on this post at the end of the year, to find out if the results will still be the best and worst performances after 162 games. Also, tomorrow I will be working on a post similar to this one, for the best and worst performances by opposing players when they are facing the Jays. I would not be surprised if many of the same games we looked at today will be involved tomorrow.
Cycles and Games oh so Close
In this morning's post, I talked a little bit about players in their MLB debuts hitting for the cycle (which has never been done). This led me to researching about Blue Jays hitting for the cycle. I remember back in 2001 when Jeff Frye did it (interestingly enough, future Blue Jay Frank Catalanotto was on the Rangers when Frye hit for the cycle against them, and we'll talk a little more about him later), so I knew it had at least been done before, but I was interested in digging a little deeper. This shows the number of times a Jay has hit for the cycle, which has happened twice, with Frye and Kelly Gruber back in 1989.
Considering that there have been 111 cycles since 1977 (the year the Jays joined the MLB), you would think that they would have hit more than 2 (the average major league team hit 3.7 cycles over that span). Now obviously some parks are easier to hit cycles in than others (I always think of Fenway Park, with the Green Monster for home runs and doubles and the "triangle" out in right-center field for triples), but Skydome (well the Rogers Center) does seem like it's a fairly hitter-friendly park (in the early 2000s, it's "Park Factor" was over 100 consistently, which means it favored hitters, while in the last couple of years it has been below 100 a couple of times). So I wondered, how close have the Jays been to hitting cycles over the years?
The first, and most obvious thing to look at, is the number of times a Jays hitter has been only a triple away from the cycle. It happened on Saturday, in JP Arencibia's debut (which I talked about earlier today), when he had a single, a double, and two home runs (Edwin Encarnacion also fell just a triple short of the cycle on Saturday). This actually happens fairly frequently, probably even more often than you would think, as there have actually been 257 occasions where a Jays hitter has fallen just a triple short of the cycle, including 11 times already this year. On average, a Jays hitter has fallen short of the cycle by a triple 7.56 times per year.
Since triples are so rare, it is to be expected that most of the time a player misses a cycle will be because of the triple. The next most difficult hit to get is the home run, and this shows that Blue Jays hitters have missed the cycle by a home run 73 times (2.15 times per year). It last happened on June 16, when Fred Lewis had 4 hits, including two singles, a double, and a triple, but couldn't quite complete the cycle. Whereas players usually miss the triple because they aren't quite fast enough, players who miss by a home run are players who aren't power hitters.
On the contrary, those who miss the cycle by only a double are usually players who just don't get enough at-bats or just can't quite stretch a single into a double, especially if they end up with 4 hits or more. This shows that 23 Blue Jays over the years (0.68 per year) have missed the cycle by just a double. In every case but one (Ed Sprague with two home runs in 1996), players end up with either 3 hits: single, triple, home run, or 4 hits: 2 singles, triple, home run.
The most painful non-cycle occurs when a player hits a double, triple, and home run, but misses by just a single. These are rare occurrences, and as this shows, it has only happened 13 times in Blue Jays history. In all 13 games, the player only ended up with 3 hits, all for extra bases. The last time it happened was to Frank Catalanotto in 2005, who actually missed the cycle by a single in 2005, a triple twice in 2003, and a home run in 2003 and 2004. The most recent player who has missed the cycle by every single type of hit has been Vernon Wells, who missed it by a single in 2003, a double in 2002, a triple in 2002, four times in 2003, and once in 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2010, and a home run twice in 2002, and once in 2003 and 2009.
So in total there have been 368 games in Jays history (an average of 10.82 a year) where a player was one hit away from the cycle, yet only twice did the player actually achieve the cycle - only 0.54% of the time! It seems as though the Jays franchise is due for another cycle soon, and already this year there have been 12 instances where a player is one hit shy of the cycle, which is the highest amount since 2006, when there were 16 instances where a player was one hit away from the cycle (this year is on pace for 18, which would be the highest total since 2002).
I believe that we will see another cycle for the Jays by the end of 2011. The way that they have been hitting the ball the last couple of years, and especially this year, I think that it may happen before the end of this year but more likely sometime next year. They have been extremely unlucky so far in their quest for cycles (though not as unlucky as the Marlins and Padres!), and at some point the law of averages must balance out.
Considering that there have been 111 cycles since 1977 (the year the Jays joined the MLB), you would think that they would have hit more than 2 (the average major league team hit 3.7 cycles over that span). Now obviously some parks are easier to hit cycles in than others (I always think of Fenway Park, with the Green Monster for home runs and doubles and the "triangle" out in right-center field for triples), but Skydome (well the Rogers Center) does seem like it's a fairly hitter-friendly park (in the early 2000s, it's "Park Factor" was over 100 consistently, which means it favored hitters, while in the last couple of years it has been below 100 a couple of times). So I wondered, how close have the Jays been to hitting cycles over the years?
The first, and most obvious thing to look at, is the number of times a Jays hitter has been only a triple away from the cycle. It happened on Saturday, in JP Arencibia's debut (which I talked about earlier today), when he had a single, a double, and two home runs (Edwin Encarnacion also fell just a triple short of the cycle on Saturday). This actually happens fairly frequently, probably even more often than you would think, as there have actually been 257 occasions where a Jays hitter has fallen just a triple short of the cycle, including 11 times already this year. On average, a Jays hitter has fallen short of the cycle by a triple 7.56 times per year.
Since triples are so rare, it is to be expected that most of the time a player misses a cycle will be because of the triple. The next most difficult hit to get is the home run, and this shows that Blue Jays hitters have missed the cycle by a home run 73 times (2.15 times per year). It last happened on June 16, when Fred Lewis had 4 hits, including two singles, a double, and a triple, but couldn't quite complete the cycle. Whereas players usually miss the triple because they aren't quite fast enough, players who miss by a home run are players who aren't power hitters.
On the contrary, those who miss the cycle by only a double are usually players who just don't get enough at-bats or just can't quite stretch a single into a double, especially if they end up with 4 hits or more. This shows that 23 Blue Jays over the years (0.68 per year) have missed the cycle by just a double. In every case but one (Ed Sprague with two home runs in 1996), players end up with either 3 hits: single, triple, home run, or 4 hits: 2 singles, triple, home run.
The most painful non-cycle occurs when a player hits a double, triple, and home run, but misses by just a single. These are rare occurrences, and as this shows, it has only happened 13 times in Blue Jays history. In all 13 games, the player only ended up with 3 hits, all for extra bases. The last time it happened was to Frank Catalanotto in 2005, who actually missed the cycle by a single in 2005, a triple twice in 2003, and a home run in 2003 and 2004. The most recent player who has missed the cycle by every single type of hit has been Vernon Wells, who missed it by a single in 2003, a double in 2002, a triple in 2002, four times in 2003, and once in 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2010, and a home run twice in 2002, and once in 2003 and 2009.
So in total there have been 368 games in Jays history (an average of 10.82 a year) where a player was one hit away from the cycle, yet only twice did the player actually achieve the cycle - only 0.54% of the time! It seems as though the Jays franchise is due for another cycle soon, and already this year there have been 12 instances where a player is one hit shy of the cycle, which is the highest amount since 2006, when there were 16 instances where a player was one hit away from the cycle (this year is on pace for 18, which would be the highest total since 2002).
I believe that we will see another cycle for the Jays by the end of 2011. The way that they have been hitting the ball the last couple of years, and especially this year, I think that it may happen before the end of this year but more likely sometime next year. They have been extremely unlucky so far in their quest for cycles (though not as unlucky as the Marlins and Padres!), and at some point the law of averages must balance out.
JP Arencibia and MLB Debuts
A couple of weeks ago, Alex Rodriguez fouled a pitch straight back, which hit John Buck in the finger, causing Buck to exit the game. He was later placed on the disabled list, which led to the call up of top Jays catching prospect JP Arencibia. Arencibia was drafted 21st overall by the Jays in the 2007 MLB draft, and last Saturday he finally started his first major league game. He hit a home run on the first pitch of his first major league at-bat, then proceeded to get a double, single, and another home run. He finished the game 4 for 5 with two home runs, 3 runs, and 3 RBIs. The Jays won the game 17-11, and his debut was immediately praised everywhere, from Jays nation to leading off Sportscenter. But just how good was his debut?
To start off, Arencibia became the first Blue Jay to have at least 4 hits in his MLB debut. He also became only the 15th player in MLB history with at least four hits. He was only the second player since 1998 to get 4 hits (Wilson Ramos, now of the Nationals, got 4 hits in his debut for the Twins in May), and had the most RBIs for any player with at least 4 hits.
But not only did Arencibia get 4 hits, he also hit for power, with 3 out of the 4 hits going for extra bases. He became only the 4th player in major league history with 2 HRs in his debut, and the first since 1999 (and only the 2nd since 1964). Out of those players with 2 HRs (Mark Quinn in 1999, Bert Campaneris in 1964, and Bob Nieman in 1951), he was the only player with 4 total hits (the other 3 only had 3 hits). So he hit with power as well as any other player ever making their debut, but hit for average better than any player with power.
Related to the number of home runs he hit is the total number of bases he hit for. He actually had the most total bases ever hit in a major league debut (11), and became only the second player in history with at least 10 TB in his major league debut, after Mark Quinn in 1999. Finally, he became only the 8th player to be one hit shy of the cycle, and the 6th to be a triple shy of the cycle (2 other players were a home run short of the cycle).
To wrap up, in all major league debuts he became the first Blue Jay and 15th player ever to get at least 4 hits, first Blue Jay and only 4th player ever to hit at least 2 HRs, and had the most total bases ever in a major league debut. I believe that without question it was the best debut for any Blue Jay hitter ever, as well as either the best or at least top 5 best debuts for any hitter ever. So when you were watching the game, or watching the highlights afterward, you may have believed that what he was doing was special, but the statistics show just how special his debut really was.
To start off, Arencibia became the first Blue Jay to have at least 4 hits in his MLB debut. He also became only the 15th player in MLB history with at least four hits. He was only the second player since 1998 to get 4 hits (Wilson Ramos, now of the Nationals, got 4 hits in his debut for the Twins in May), and had the most RBIs for any player with at least 4 hits.
But not only did Arencibia get 4 hits, he also hit for power, with 3 out of the 4 hits going for extra bases. He became only the 4th player in major league history with 2 HRs in his debut, and the first since 1999 (and only the 2nd since 1964). Out of those players with 2 HRs (Mark Quinn in 1999, Bert Campaneris in 1964, and Bob Nieman in 1951), he was the only player with 4 total hits (the other 3 only had 3 hits). So he hit with power as well as any other player ever making their debut, but hit for average better than any player with power.
Related to the number of home runs he hit is the total number of bases he hit for. He actually had the most total bases ever hit in a major league debut (11), and became only the second player in history with at least 10 TB in his major league debut, after Mark Quinn in 1999. Finally, he became only the 8th player to be one hit shy of the cycle, and the 6th to be a triple shy of the cycle (2 other players were a home run short of the cycle).
To wrap up, in all major league debuts he became the first Blue Jay and 15th player ever to get at least 4 hits, first Blue Jay and only 4th player ever to hit at least 2 HRs, and had the most total bases ever in a major league debut. I believe that without question it was the best debut for any Blue Jay hitter ever, as well as either the best or at least top 5 best debuts for any hitter ever. So when you were watching the game, or watching the highlights afterward, you may have believed that what he was doing was special, but the statistics show just how special his debut really was.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Young Guns and Strikes
I was reading an interesting piece by Tom Verducci of SI the other day (you can read it here), and it got me wondering: how well is the rotation set up for now, but more importantly, for the future?
The article points out that the key to winning in the AL East is having pitchers that can throw lots of strikes, and also generate lots of strikeouts. We are going to look at statistics for pitchers 25 and under, which classify as young, either still prospects that are trying to break into the major leagues or pitchers that have just established themselves in the past few years. We will look at both the number of strikes and strikeouts individually, but I think the easiest place to start would be with wins.
It has been proven that wins are a very flawed statistic, but if your young pitchers are getting more wins in comparison to other years, it should be a good sign that you have some good young pitchers that are able to pitch and win at the major league level. This table shows the numbers of wins each year by pitchers on the Blue Jays that are 25 or younger (turning 25 before June 30 of the season). As the table shows, the 2009 Blue Jays had 23 total wins from pitchers under 25, mostly from Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, and Marc Rzepczynski. That total ranked 9th all time for the Blue Jays, which shows that there was some promise there (as a comparison, 2008 had 25 and under Jays' pitchers winning only 13 games). You can see the 2009 totals for all major league teams here, which shows that the Jays ranked 14th. However, this year there has been a big step-up. There have already (barely 2/3 of the way through the season) been 26 occasions where a pitcher 25 and under has gotten the win this year. Again, the familiar names are Romero, Cecil, and now Brandon Morrow. They are currently in 2nd place for all major league teams for 2010. If the pitchers continue at this pace for the rest of the season, they will shatter the record of 34 set in 1982, and get to around 39 or 40. This shows that, in terms of wins, the rotation is set up well for both next year and many years to come.
Now that we have seen what wins have told us about the future, we can look at some less flawed statistics, such as strikes and strikeouts. Since wins are dependent on the pitcher as well as both the offense (scoring runs) and the defense (making plays for the pitcher), strikes are based purely on the pitcher's performance. The first point mentioned in the article is that pitchers in the AL East need to get a lot of strikeouts. If we look at the strikeouts per nine innings for pitchers 25 and under for the Jays, we can see that the past few years have been very good. Last year, there were 5 pitchers (who started at least 60% of their games) 25 or under who struck out at least 6 batters per nine innings. If we look at all teams in the major leagues, we can see that the Jays were second only to the Marlins, who had 6 pitchers that fit. So far this year, the Jays have 3 pitchers (Cecil, Morrow, and Romero) 25 and under that are averaging at least 6 strikeouts per 9 innings. Again, if we look at all teams, the Jays are tied for first with the Braves, Reds, Dodgers, and A's. So in terms of strikeouts, their young pitchers are performing better than ever, which shows that the future is bright for their rotation.
Finally, we are going to look at the other point mentioned in the article: throwing lots of strikes. Although it may seem counter intuitive to look at both strikeouts and % of strikes, there are cases (52 % strikes, 8.5 SO per 9 IP) where a pitcher may get a lot of strikeouts but not throw a high percentage of strikes. If we look at the % of strikes thrown by pitchers 25 and under, we can get an idea of how good they can be versus the AL East. This table shows the number of pitchers 25 and under each season for the Jays that threw strikes at least 60% of the time. Unfortunately, this data is only available from 2000 onwards, but we can still see that the last two years have the most pitchers 25 and under throwing at least 60% strikes (5 and 4, respectively). Again, if we want to view all teams in the major leagues, we can look at 2009 here and 2010 here. The Jays rank in the top 6 in both years, so we can see that their young pitchers are not only striking out hitters, but also throwing a lot of strikes.
It is always interesting to read something and then use statistical analysis to either back up what you just read, or completely falsify it. In this case, we can see that the article is completely correct in stating that the Jays have the pitching to win in the AL East based upon throwing strikes and getting strikeouts. It is excited to know that the rotation is set up very well for the next couple of years, and if the team continues to hit like this year in the future, the team should do very well.
The article points out that the key to winning in the AL East is having pitchers that can throw lots of strikes, and also generate lots of strikeouts. We are going to look at statistics for pitchers 25 and under, which classify as young, either still prospects that are trying to break into the major leagues or pitchers that have just established themselves in the past few years. We will look at both the number of strikes and strikeouts individually, but I think the easiest place to start would be with wins.
It has been proven that wins are a very flawed statistic, but if your young pitchers are getting more wins in comparison to other years, it should be a good sign that you have some good young pitchers that are able to pitch and win at the major league level. This table shows the numbers of wins each year by pitchers on the Blue Jays that are 25 or younger (turning 25 before June 30 of the season). As the table shows, the 2009 Blue Jays had 23 total wins from pitchers under 25, mostly from Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, and Marc Rzepczynski. That total ranked 9th all time for the Blue Jays, which shows that there was some promise there (as a comparison, 2008 had 25 and under Jays' pitchers winning only 13 games). You can see the 2009 totals for all major league teams here, which shows that the Jays ranked 14th. However, this year there has been a big step-up. There have already (barely 2/3 of the way through the season) been 26 occasions where a pitcher 25 and under has gotten the win this year. Again, the familiar names are Romero, Cecil, and now Brandon Morrow. They are currently in 2nd place for all major league teams for 2010. If the pitchers continue at this pace for the rest of the season, they will shatter the record of 34 set in 1982, and get to around 39 or 40. This shows that, in terms of wins, the rotation is set up well for both next year and many years to come.
Now that we have seen what wins have told us about the future, we can look at some less flawed statistics, such as strikes and strikeouts. Since wins are dependent on the pitcher as well as both the offense (scoring runs) and the defense (making plays for the pitcher), strikes are based purely on the pitcher's performance. The first point mentioned in the article is that pitchers in the AL East need to get a lot of strikeouts. If we look at the strikeouts per nine innings for pitchers 25 and under for the Jays, we can see that the past few years have been very good. Last year, there were 5 pitchers (who started at least 60% of their games) 25 or under who struck out at least 6 batters per nine innings. If we look at all teams in the major leagues, we can see that the Jays were second only to the Marlins, who had 6 pitchers that fit. So far this year, the Jays have 3 pitchers (Cecil, Morrow, and Romero) 25 and under that are averaging at least 6 strikeouts per 9 innings. Again, if we look at all teams, the Jays are tied for first with the Braves, Reds, Dodgers, and A's. So in terms of strikeouts, their young pitchers are performing better than ever, which shows that the future is bright for their rotation.
Finally, we are going to look at the other point mentioned in the article: throwing lots of strikes. Although it may seem counter intuitive to look at both strikeouts and % of strikes, there are cases (52 % strikes, 8.5 SO per 9 IP) where a pitcher may get a lot of strikeouts but not throw a high percentage of strikes. If we look at the % of strikes thrown by pitchers 25 and under, we can get an idea of how good they can be versus the AL East. This table shows the number of pitchers 25 and under each season for the Jays that threw strikes at least 60% of the time. Unfortunately, this data is only available from 2000 onwards, but we can still see that the last two years have the most pitchers 25 and under throwing at least 60% strikes (5 and 4, respectively). Again, if we want to view all teams in the major leagues, we can look at 2009 here and 2010 here. The Jays rank in the top 6 in both years, so we can see that their young pitchers are not only striking out hitters, but also throwing a lot of strikes.
It is always interesting to read something and then use statistical analysis to either back up what you just read, or completely falsify it. In this case, we can see that the article is completely correct in stating that the Jays have the pitching to win in the AL East based upon throwing strikes and getting strikeouts. It is excited to know that the rotation is set up very well for the next couple of years, and if the team continues to hit like this year in the future, the team should do very well.
The Jays After 112 Games
Just thought I would post a quick note here about how the Jays have done this year in comparison to previous years.
This table shows that after 112 games this year, their 59 wins tie them for the 9th best total in Jays history. That is, comparing the first 112 games of every Jays season ever (the past 34 seasons), they have won the 9th most games this year.
Even more impressively, it is their highest win total in the first 112 games since the new millennium. The last time they won more games was 1999, when they won 61 of their first 112 games. So even though this was supposed to be a "rebuilding" year, and it still is to some extent, the Jays are doing very well in comparison to their recent history.
This table shows that after 112 games this year, their 59 wins tie them for the 9th best total in Jays history. That is, comparing the first 112 games of every Jays season ever (the past 34 seasons), they have won the 9th most games this year.
Even more impressively, it is their highest win total in the first 112 games since the new millennium. The last time they won more games was 1999, when they won 61 of their first 112 games. So even though this was supposed to be a "rebuilding" year, and it still is to some extent, the Jays are doing very well in comparison to their recent history.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Brandon Morrow and Other Blue Jays Pitching Gems
Well, now is as good of time as any to write my first post. On Sunday, I went to my first Blue Jays game this season, and happened to witness one of the greatest pitching performances by a Blue Jays pitcher ever. What a game to see! As you probably already know, Brandon Morrow pitched a complete game, one-hit shutout with 17 (17!) strikeouts, and gave up the only hit with two outs in the ninth inning.
So the question is: where does this rank in terms of the greatest games ever pitched by a Blue Jay? Certainly, the best game ever pitched was probably on September 2, 1990, when Dave Stieb no-hit the Cleveland Indians for still the only no-hitter in Blue Jays history.
Here is a list of all games in which a Blue Jays pitcher pitched at least 9 innings and gave up 1 or no hits.
There have been a total of 15 games in which a Blue Jays pitcher threw at a complete game with only one hit. It is interesting to note that the only time a run was scored against in these games was the September 27, 1998 game, where Roy Halladay had a no-hitter through 8 innings before giving up a home run to Bobby Higginson in the 9th (in his rookie season nonetheless!). But Morrow did not simply throw a complete game one-hit shutout. He also struck out seventeen batters. Here is another list of games in which a Blue Jays pitcher has thrown a one-hitter with at least 10 strikeouts.
As you can see, only three times has a pitcher for the Jays gotten at least 10 strikeouts and only given up one hit. And they have all happened this year! Morrow on Sunday, Brett Cecil in May (8 IP), and Ricky Romero in April (also 8 IP). Pretty amazing.
So this game was the first time a Blue Jays pitcher has thrown a complete game one-hitter (also a shutout) with at least 10 strikeouts. And again, he struck out 17 batters, which is the second highest total in Blue Jays history, only behind Roger Clemens' 18 on August 25, 1998 (he's also the first Blue Jays pitcher besides Roger Clemens to get at least 15 K's).
I think the conclusion here is that this was probably either the best or second-best game ever pitched by a Jays' pitcher (up for grabs with the no-hitter). If you want to judge a game by Bill James' Game Score, it ranks as the highest game score ever recorded by a Blue Jays pitcher. It was an amazing performance, and we all hope that Morrow can continue pitching this well the rest of this season and his career!
So the question is: where does this rank in terms of the greatest games ever pitched by a Blue Jay? Certainly, the best game ever pitched was probably on September 2, 1990, when Dave Stieb no-hit the Cleveland Indians for still the only no-hitter in Blue Jays history.
Here is a list of all games in which a Blue Jays pitcher pitched at least 9 innings and gave up 1 or no hits.
There have been a total of 15 games in which a Blue Jays pitcher threw at a complete game with only one hit. It is interesting to note that the only time a run was scored against in these games was the September 27, 1998 game, where Roy Halladay had a no-hitter through 8 innings before giving up a home run to Bobby Higginson in the 9th (in his rookie season nonetheless!). But Morrow did not simply throw a complete game one-hit shutout. He also struck out seventeen batters. Here is another list of games in which a Blue Jays pitcher has thrown a one-hitter with at least 10 strikeouts.
As you can see, only three times has a pitcher for the Jays gotten at least 10 strikeouts and only given up one hit. And they have all happened this year! Morrow on Sunday, Brett Cecil in May (8 IP), and Ricky Romero in April (also 8 IP). Pretty amazing.
So this game was the first time a Blue Jays pitcher has thrown a complete game one-hitter (also a shutout) with at least 10 strikeouts. And again, he struck out 17 batters, which is the second highest total in Blue Jays history, only behind Roger Clemens' 18 on August 25, 1998 (he's also the first Blue Jays pitcher besides Roger Clemens to get at least 15 K's).
I think the conclusion here is that this was probably either the best or second-best game ever pitched by a Jays' pitcher (up for grabs with the no-hitter). If you want to judge a game by Bill James' Game Score, it ranks as the highest game score ever recorded by a Blue Jays pitcher. It was an amazing performance, and we all hope that Morrow can continue pitching this well the rest of this season and his career!
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