Yesterday I posted part one, describing how we can measure the effectiveness of the Blue Jays' front office. I also analyzed the Roy Halladay trade, which showed that the Jays lost approximately 7.9 games because of the trade. In the post today, I want to look at the remaining meaningful trades made by the front office this year, in mostly chronological order.
To recap quickly, Alex Anthopoulos was promoted on October 3. His first move, trading Halladay, was completed on December 16. Just a week later, on December 23, he made his second significant trade. Looking for a shutdown late-inning relief pitcher, the Mariners believed that Brandon League could help the team as they challenged for a playoff berth this year (that turned out well!). In return, the Jays received Brandon Morrow, a highly anticipated starter with outstanding "stuff". The Mariners drafted him 5th overall in 2006, but never seemed to be able to decide whether to turn him into a starter or try to have him become a closer. Morrow never panned out in his years with Seattle, so he was traded to the Jays. He finally had his breakout season this year, showing occasional flashes of brilliance (see here) while finishing 10-7 with an ERA of 4.49. He ended the 2010 season with a WAR of 1.6, while League struggled, posting a -0.1 WAR. Assuming an "average" replacement for League in the bullpen, the Jays gained 1.5 wins from the trade. The trade was one-sided, even when it was made, that many people wondered if it was part of the Halladay trade (where Cliff Lee ended up going to Seattle), but that was not true. The Jays simply made a great trade, which paid off this year and should pay off for many years to come.
After the two big December trades, Anthopoulos mostly tinkered with the lineup until the season started, with only a couple of minor moves. On January 20, the Jays traded for relief pitcher Merkin Valdez, sending cash considerations to the Giants. Valdez ended the year with a -0.1 WAR. On February 6, AA traded for Dana Eveland, a pitcher with the A's. Eveland ended the year with a -0.8 WAR, but assuming an average replacement player, we have already counted his stats in the Roy Halladay trade (see part one), so we cannot count them again. Eveland pitched poorly enough to be sent to the Pirates on June 1 for Ronald Uviedo, who did not pitch in the MLB this year. There were also some insignificant moves scattered throughout the year where AA acquired minor league players such as Zach Johnson and Casey Fien.
The next significant trade was made on April 15. The Jays acquired outfielder Fred Lewis from the Giants for a player to be named later or cash. Lewis ended the year with a 0.8 WAR, which looks like it helped the team, but we must also take into consideration some other things. The plate appearances that Lewis had would have been given to someone else if he had not been acquired. The likely recipients of the PAs would have been Travis Snider and Dewayne Wise, with most going to Snider. In 319 PAs, Snider had a 0.9 WAR, so if assuming that 319 of the 440 PAs that Lewis had would have gone to Snider and Snider would have a constant performance, those 319 PAs could have been worth 0.9 wins. If we give the other 121 PAs to Wise, who had a 0.1 WAR in 118 PAs, he probably would have produced about 0.1 more wins. So overall, those 440 PAs would have produced about 1.0 wins if Lewis had not been acquired. So the net loss on the trade was actually -0.2 wins.
The final significant trade was made on July 14, when the Jays traded Alex Gonzalez to the Braves for Yunel Escobar and Jo-Jo Reyes (who did not pitch in the majors in 2010 for the Jays). Gonzalez had gotten off to a hot start with 17 home runs in the first 85 games of the year, only hit 6 more for the Braves. This trade was a classic case of selling high, with the 33-year old Gonzalez having a career year, while Escobar was in the doghouse in Atlanta but still had a lot of potential. Before the trade, Gonzalez had a 2.8 WAR, while Escobar only had a 0.9 WAR. However, after the trade, Gonzalez only had a 0.9 WAR while Escobar had a 1.0 WAR. So the net gain of the trade was 0.1 win, and considering the trade was made with the future in mind, turned out very well for this year (and should help out the next couple of years with Gonzalez slowing down and Escobar just hitting his peak).
Now that we have looked at each individual trade, we can see the overall result of the trading. Here is a quick summary:
Halladay trade: -7.9 wins
Morrow trade: +1.5 wins
Valdez trade: -0.1 wins
Lewis trade: -0.2 wins
Escobar trade: +0.1 wins
So the trades had an overall net of -6.6 wins (6.6 more losses). This means that had none of the trades been made, the Jays would have won between 6 and 7 more games this year. Looking at the AL East standings this year:
TB: 96-66 (won division)
NYY: 95-67 (won wild card)
BOS: 89-73
TOR: 85-77
So the Jays would have won between 91 and 92 games, putting them ahead of Boston but still out of the playoff picture. If we want to look at the best case scenario for this year only, then Halladay would not have been traded. If the Jays were going for the playoffs this year, they probably would not have traded Gonzalez, as he was the "rental" player in the deal, or the one that could help his team win now, not in the future. So if we assume only the Morrow trade was made (which may not be true, because the Mariners only traded Morrow after trading for Cliff Lee), the Jays would have gained 9.6 wins. That would have put them between 94 and 95 wins, ahead of Boston, and possibly one game behind or tied with the Yankees. Given that the Yankees somewhat tanked during the stretch in order to draw the Twins in the first round of the playoffs, they probably could have won more games if they were in a "real" race for the playoffs, and not just the division. So, we can say with confidence that the Jays still probably would not have made the playoffs (but you never know, if most of those extra wins had come against the Yankees, maybe they would have!).
Even in this fairly simple analysis, we can see that if the Jays really tried hard to make the playoffs this year, they still would have fallen just a little short, and would be sitting in a far worse position for the upcoming years. Seeing that almost every move this year besides the Halladay trade helped, or at least didn't hurt the Jays, the front office did a good job both strengthening the team now as well as building for the future. The jury is still out on the Halladay trade, and will be for awhile until all of Drabek, D'Arnaud, and Gose have played significant time in (hopefully) the majors. But the overall conclusion of this analysis is that Alex Anthopoulos and the rest of the front office did a very nice job with the trades this year, and hopefully the Jays will reap the benefits in the near future.
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